Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

改性填料提高复合材料抗冲击性能研究     

余志伟 《地球科学与环境学报》2001,23(3):75-78

通过对填料表面进行改性来提高复合材料抗冲击性能.采用间歇式循环冲击仪对复合材料进行冲击性能试验.试验结果表明,复合材料的抗冲击强度得到明显改善,为提高复合材料抗冲击性能开辟了一条新的有效途径.  相似文献   

塔里木盆地志留纪沉积层序构成及充填响应特征   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7  

施振生  杨威  郭长敏  朱筱敏  张林  陈刚 《沉积学报》2007,25(3):401-408

塔里木盆地志留系是由角度不整合面所限定的一个区域性（二级）的沉积层序,其内可划分出5个三级沉积层序。总体上显示一个从水进到水退的沉积旋回,可识别出曲流河三角洲—辫状河三角洲、滨外陆棚及较深水盆地、无障壁碎屑滨岸—无障壁碎屑潮坪沉积体系组合,它们代表了二级沉积层序中相对低位、海侵和高位的3个沉积体系组合。研究区构造、沉积、古生物和古气候资料表明,层序1底界面和层序5顶界面是塔里木周缘板块构造挤压、盆地隆升作用的结果;层序2底界面是周缘板块强烈挤压、盆地挠曲下降作用结果,同期全球海平面快速上升;层序3、层序4和层序5的底界面是在构造作用稳定、全球海平面下降背景之上由相对海平面次一级旋回变化形成的,是古气候变化、沉积物供给及构造沉降共同作用的结果。  相似文献   

沉积盆地构造核心理论和关键技术方法:前沿与发展方向     

杨树锋  贾承造  陈汉林  贾东  魏国齐  肖安成  郭召杰  程晓敢  吴磊  尹宏伟  章凤奇  林秀斌 《地学前缘》2022,29(6):10-23

系统分析前人在沉积盆地构造研究的基础上,论文总结了沉积盆地构造核心理论和关键技术方法的前沿与发展方向。沉积盆地构造核心理论包括盆地分类理论、成盆机制理论、变形定量分析理论和盆地充填过程理论。盆地分类理论是依据不同分类标准建立盆地分类方案,其发展趋势是基于资源与构造背景的原型盆地分类和基于盆地演化的叠合盆地分类;成盆机制理论是定量模拟不同作用机制下(纯热机制、构造作用、负载作用)盆地沉降过程及其控制因素,其发展趋势是三维成盆动力学模拟;变形定量分析理论包括断层相关褶皱理论、临界楔理论和盐构造理论,其发展趋势是三维构造建模与三维定量变形分析;盆地充填过程理论主要开展不同构造成因盆地的充填过程对比与盆山过程的源-汇分析,其发展趋势是多元源-汇分析与定量化盆地分析。沉积盆地构造关键前沿技术包括三维构造建模技术、构造物理模拟与数值模拟技术和基于三维构造恢复的裂缝预测技术。构造物理模拟技术包括了基于工业CT扫描成像物理模拟技术:可以无损动态监测构造带内部变形演化过程,精确构建变形带三维空间展布形态;基于PIV的有限应变分析的物理模拟技术:可以定量分析变形的演化过程,直观展示应变分布特征,探讨构造应变动态分布规律;基于超重力离心机的构造物理模拟技术:可以模拟不同尺度构造流变过程,探讨岩石圈浅层脆性变形与深层韧性流变之间的动力学机制。  相似文献   

渤中西环古近系东营组物源转换与沉积充填响应   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李欢  杨香华  朱红涛  周心怀  李建平 《沉积学报》2015,33(1):36-48

通过砂岩中碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄分析、火山碎屑组分含量变化、地震多属性分析、层序地层格架与沉积充填特征综合分析,认为东二段沉积时期渤中西环的物源供给方式、层序地层格架及沉积充填特征发生明显的变化.东二下段沉积期前,湖盆处于强烈裂陷期,中-深湖相泥岩发育,物源主要为盆地内部的中生代火成岩基底,沉积层序明显受盆内低凸起控制,在盆内低凸起四周发育一系列近源的扇三角洲朵体;东二下段沉积期后,湖盆处于断-坳过渡期,盆内低凸起四周的断裂活动减弱,沉积层序逐渐向盆内低凸起超覆,盆外太古代-元古代变质岩物源供给不断加强,近源的扇三角洲砂体逐渐向远源的辫状河三角洲砂体转化,同时发育宽广的滨浅湖环境.渤中西环古近纪沉积充填过程中,地层样式、沉积模式与物源供给方式的一致性变化,体现了裂陷湖盆充填演化的内在规律,为我国东部裂陷盆地演化及裂陷旋回划分提供了新的线索.  相似文献   

Evolution and Morphodynamics of a Prograded Beach‐Ridge Foreland,Northern Baffin Island,Canadian Arctic Archipelago          下载免费PDF全文

Dominique St‐Hilaire‐Gravel  Donald L. Forbes  Trevor Bell 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(3):615-631

Landward retreat (marine transgression) is a common response of coastal systems to rising relative sea level. However, given sufficient sediment supply, the coast may advance seaward. The latter response of gravel barriers has been recorded in parts of southeastern and northwestern Canada, where seaward‐rising sets of beach ridges are observed in areas of Holocene RSL rise. Cape Charles Yorke, northern Baffin Island, is a 5 km long gravel foreland characterized by seaward‐rising beach‐ridge crest elevations. The prograded morphology of the Cape Charles Yorke foreland is a prime example of coastal response to a combination of rising RSL and abundant sediment supply, an unusual and little‐documented pattern in the Canadian Arctic. The main gravel supply to Cape Charles Yorke is likely from eroding bedrock and raised marine deposits southwest of the foreland. Although not the dominant sediment source, the Cape Charles Yorke delta contributed to the formation of the foreland by sheltering it from easterly storm waves and providing an anchor point for the prograding ridges. The truncation of relict ridges by the modern shoreline suggests a recent regime shift from continuous deposition to predominant erosion. The cause and timing of this shift are unknown but could result from a recent dwindling in sediment supply, increased accommodation space, increased wave energy, and/or an accelerated rise of relative sea level.  相似文献   

Changeability of Movable Bed‐Surface Particles in Natural,Gravel‐Bed Channels and Its Relation to Bedload Grain Size Distribution (Scott River,Svalbard)          下载免费PDF全文

Waldemar Kociuba  Grzegorz Janicki 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(3):507-521

The presented paper analyses the variability of grain size distribution parameters of bedload transported by the gravel‐bed Scott River (Svalbard) draining a glacier catchment with an area of 10 km². The grain size distribution analysis is one of the basic elements of identification of the fluvial transport mechanisms in gravel‐bed rivers. It is used for the determination of threshold values for bedload movement. It is also treated as an important indicator of the origin, routes of distribution, and conditions of transport and deposition of fluvial bedload. The field study in a natural proglacial gravel‐bed channel was carried out at two reaches in the mouth section of Scott River. The study revealed relatively high temporal variability and similar mean parameters of grain size distribution in conditions of low discharges. Bedload transport rates reached a mean of 71.9–76.0 kg d^?1 in channel cross‐section. Bedload texture was dominated by gravels with a proportional contribution of the fine‐grained fraction along with very fine‐grained gravels (8‐2 mm) of 38.8%. The medium‐grained fraction (16‐8 mm) constituted 33.7%, with a lower contribution from the coarse‐grained fraction (32‐16 mm) of 23.2%, and the very coarse‐grained fraction (64‐32 mm) of 4.4%. Two periods in the course of bedload transport and distribution of grain size distribution parameters were distinguished based on variation of hydro‐meteorological conditions. The first half of the measurement period was distinguished by significantly higher values of daily loads and increased contribution of the coarse‐grained and very coarse‐grained fraction (28–31% and 6.2–6.6%, respectively). During this time, the river discharged up to 94% of bedload. This resulted in a clear tendency for riverbed scouring. The second half was distinguished by generally low daily bedload transport rates (<10 kg d^?1), an increase in contribution of fine‐ and very fine‐grained gravels (42–55.6%), and a change in the tendency to aggradation. Grain size indices were more varied, and grains were usually finer and better sorted. Selective transport processes, often related to redeposition, were dominant in the channel. Along with an increase in flow velocity, conditions for material deposition became more variable. This was manifested in weaker sorting and an increase in grain diameter.  相似文献   

极限波浪运动特性的非线性数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

宁德志  滕斌  姜立明  臧军 《海洋学报》2008,30(3):126-132

利用时域高阶边界元方法建立了模拟极限波浪运动的完全非线性数值模型,其中自由水面满足完全非线性自由水面条件.采用半混合欧拉-拉格朗日方法追踪流体瞬时水面,运用四阶Runge-Kutta方法更新下一时间步的波面和速度势,同时应用镜像格林函数消除水槽两个侧面和底面上的积分.研究中利用波浪聚焦的方法产生极限波浪,并且在水槽中开展了物理模型实验,将测点试验数据与数值结果进行了对比,两者吻合得很好.对极限波浪运动的非线性和流域内速度分布进行了研究.  相似文献   

花岗岩残积土桩基施工中的问题及解决办法     

岑卓玲 《南方国土资源》2002,15(4):62-64

文章总结了梧州市常用的沉管灌注桩、钻孔灌注桩和人工挖孔桩在以花岗岩残积土为桩基持力层时施工中的特点及容易出现的问题 ,并提出相应的解决办法  相似文献   

单位圆内亚纯函数的不同指数的充满足圆     

张庆德 《成都信息工程学院学报》2001,16(1):52-57

对任一正数λ和τ（τ在λ和l 1之间），可构造单位圆内一λ级亚纯函数，具有一个τ级充满圆序列，但没有大于τ级的充满圆序列。  相似文献